I’ve put together a hypothetical portfolio of 20 stocks of economically-sensitive U.S. companies. They include manufacturers of heavy equipment, trucking and other transportation services firms, employment services companies, homebuilders, and retailers sensitive to housing markets.
Market prices aren’t always “right,” but they tend to move in that direction, and this portfolio provides a timely tool to track trends in economic expectations.
What happened yesterday, when the Greek news hit the markets generally, and the S&P 500 fell 2%?
Every one of these 20 stocks declined. But only six of the 20 declined more than the S&P 500.
Today (right now, at 9:23 am) the S&P 500 is up modestly (0.4%), after yesterday’s rough down day. Sixteen of the 20 stocks in my “ECON” portfolio are reported up on the day, and they are split roughly equally in the number rising above vs. below the S&P 500.
Just one snapshot, but so far, on this measure, fears of broader economic contagion from Greece appear relatively constrained.
So far, anyway.