Guest post by John Knubel and Bill Owens (see bios here)
Veterans Day is the day our nation honors those who’ve sacrificed time, treasure and life itself for the preservation of the American way, values and freedom. Their sacrifice has supported, especially since World War II, a unique foreign policy summarized by General Colin Powell’s statement: “The only land we ever asked for was enough land to bury our dead. That is the kind of country we are.”
This has benefited America, its allies and the entire world. In the 72 years since World War II, humankind has made more progress measured in terms of ‘life liberty and the pursuit of happiness’ than any other time in human history. Two of our World War II major adversaries today are our closest allies. As a friend of ours, who lost his leg volunteering for service during the Iraqi war put it “we all write the check. For some of us it’s cashed and for others, it’s not. But we all write the check.” So, we honor all.
But few recognize the greatest threat to the continuation of America’s super power status and ‘soft’ world leadership role comes from ourselves, not from the Taliban, ISIL or any nation state.
Former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mike Mullen put it clearly when asked by a reporter his opinion of the greatest national security threat when he answered “the national debt.” Other JCS Chairmen have echoed this opinion. And it’s in neither political party’s short-term interest to acknowledge this reality except at the very highest level. For example, Defense Secretary Mattis echoed this view in his confirmation hearing before Congress. But the party gridlock continues and America continues in Denial.
Why this is true today more than any other time since World War II? The answer lies in the following realities:
- The debt public debt and related unfunded trust fund liabilities exceed 75% and 100% as a proportion of the economy, the Gross Domestic Product or GDP respectively. This is higher than any other time since World War II when America dominated the world economy and enjoyed economic growth rates over 4%. Also, then 90% of the budget was under the direct annual control of Congress through the annual budget control process. Today over 60% of the federal budget is entitlement and formula driven, with only 40% controlled annually by Congress.
- Non-partisan economic analysis demonstrates at these debt levels, economic growth suffers and in the absence of spending control, an economic ‘doom loop’ will ensue in which spending grows faster than revenue, as it already is, and in the absence of spending control, this leads to higher debt to GDP ratios and even slower economic and revenue growth in a continuing downward spiral.
- This is already is beginning to happen. The official ten-year Congressional Budget Office forecasts show an additional $11 Trillion in public debt will be added and the debt to GDP ratio will grow to over 90% compared to 75% today. Admittedly this does not includes the claim by the Trump Administration that higher growth rates will achieved. But neither does it take into account the $1.5 trillion of additional debt which previously ‘debt hawk’ Republicans today say they will accept from the tax revision and cut.
- Much of our debt, particularly incrementally, is funded from overseas. As a result, we risk losing control over both our foreign policy as well as our domestic economic policy. Not only morally does the Bible teach that the debtor ‘shall be slave to the creditor’, but many non-Christians and most Americans (polls show over 80%) believe it’s immoral to pass debt onto future generates. Also the Suez Canal crisis of 1957, illustrates how country’s that are deeply in debt, like Britain and France then, have their foreign policy constrained by creditors. Then it was President Eisenhower and the United States which used debt to intervene. For the US in the future it could easily be China or the Saudis .
- Because neither party has demonstrated the political will to reform ‘formula driven entitlement’ programs that are proportionally overwhelming, the discretionary portion of the budget, which is 60% Defense, the focus of budget cuts falls on the Defense Department. Our capacity to support the unique foreign policy America has followed since World War II is increasingly jeopardized.
- Even if the Trump Administration’s efforts to address this challenge are successful in the short term, Defense Spending will decrease as a share of the total budget and probably of the economy. Defense while be facing a decreasing ‘top line’ adjusted for inflation. Unless another Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA) is implemented, our National Security and the peace and progress the world has experienced since World War II is increasingly at risk.
These are daunting challenges but the first step to address them with a necessary 30 to 20 year perspective, with actionable near term results, is to pursue the details of what this RMA would be in detail and most important, to arrest the growth in debt, deficits and unfunded liabilities and political promises. Neither political party has shown the political will to control spending when in power, so we support a state-led amendment to the Constitution under its article 5 as a first step. Currently the movement has 28 of the needed 34 states force a limited purpose convention of states to draft the amendment which would then be submitted to the states to get the needed 38 states to ratify the amendment.
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By The Honorable John Knubel and Admiral Bill Owens. We are on the Board of Advisors of a new nonprofit organization called interchangeably: The Balanced Budget Amendment Foundation, the Committee for a Fiscal Responsibility Amendment and the Center for National Debt Policy. Please visit our website for greater detail at www.cffra.org and how you can help. Or call John Knubel at 301-502 1445.