New data released by the U.S. Census Bureau this morning indicate that state population growth trends remain connected to their governments’ fiscal condition.
I just ranked the 50 states from top to bottom on population growth in 2016, and then excluded five states (Texas, Wyoming, South Dakota, and North Dakota) uniquely exposed to a rapid decline in oil prices the last couple years.
Looking at the balance of the 50 states, there are seven (New York, Mississippi, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Vermont, Illinois, and West Virginia) that had actual losses in population in 2016. The average Truth in Accounting “Taxpayer Burden” for these seven states comes to $24,700, nearly three times as high as the average of the other 45 states.
At the other end of the ledger, the average “Taxpayer Burden” for the ten fastest-growing states (Utah, Nevada, Idaho, Florida, Washington, Oregon, Colorado, Arizona, South Carolina and North Carolina) came to $3,300, just one-fourth of the amount for the average of the other 35 states in the ranking.
And if anything, the relationship between population growth and state financial conditions grew stronger, not weaker, from 2015 to 2016.
In 1970, Albert O. Hirschman wrote a classic book titled “Exit, Voice & Loyalty.” It was subtitled “Responses to Decline in Firms, Organizations, and States.” The basic thesis is that people can choose exit or voice, in reacting to factors that concern them, with loyalty playing a role in that choice.
The states are often called “laboratories of democracy.” As we’ve noted previously, in some states, a growing number of lab rats appear to have had enough, and are escaping.